⚡ Key Insight STR supply is near historical lows while the investment premium hits its highest level since 2023 — a rare window for new investors entering in 2026.
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DSCR Capital Partners Research

U.S. Short-Term Rental Outlook 2026

A data-driven analysis of STR market conditions, investment returns, and the opportunity window for DSCR loan borrowers in 2026 — powered by AirDNA, Zillow, and Fannie Mae data.

PUBLISHED: MARCH 2026  ·  DATA: AIRDNA, FANNIE MAE, ZILLOW

$1,100+
Projected STR monthly premium over mortgage payment by 2027
↑ Highest since 2023
4.3%
YOY supply growth — near historical lows, limiting new competition
↓ Tight supply = opportunity
10.3%
STR investment ROI — rebounded sharply from 2.8% trough in 2023
↑ Strong recovery
~$600K
Average STR market home value — stable since 2023 peak
→ Price stabilization
Investment Returns

The Numbers Are Pointing Up

Two critical metrics — the STR monthly premium and investor ROI — have both rebounded sharply from their 2023 troughs and are forecast to keep climbing through 2027.

STR Premium vs. Mortgage Payment (2019–2027F)

The monthly earnings gap between avg. STR revenue and avg. mortgage payment. Crushed by rate hikes in 2022–23, the premium is recovering strongly into the forecast period.

~$3,500Avg. monthly STR revenue (forecast)
~$2,500Avg. monthly mortgage (stabilizing)
$1,100+Net premium by 2027
Source: AirDNA, Fannie Mae, Oxford Economics, Zillow. Monthly mortgage assumes period home values and interest rates.

STR Investment ROI & Supply Growth (2018–2025)

ROI peaked at 30.8% in 2021, bottomed at 2.8% in late 2023, and has rebounded to 10.3%. Supply growth is near historic lows at 4.3% YOY.

30.8%2021 peak ROI
2.8%2023 trough
10.3%Current (late 2025)
Source: AirDNA, December 2025. ROI = annual STR investment premium ÷ purchase price.
Entry Point Analysis

Home Values Stabilized — A Buyer's Window

After surging from ~$185K to over $615K between 2000–2022, STR-market home values have plateaued near $600K. That stability — combined with rising rental income — is improving return math for 2026 buyers.

Average STR Market Home Value (2000–2025)

Zillow Home Value Index weighted by zip code STR listing count. Values stabilized in the $575K–$610K range since 2023 — down from the $615K peak. Lower prices + higher rents = better deals.

Source: AirDNA, Zillow Home Value Index. Weighted by short-term rental listing count per zip code.

Home Price Changes by Market Type

Since October 2024, most STR-friendly markets have softened — improving acquisition economics for 2026 buyers. Coastal and urban markets offer the best entry-point improvement.

Large City Urban −2.6%
Coastal Markets −2.4%
Large City Suburban −2.1%
Mountain / Lake −1.4%
Mid-Size Cities −1.0%
Small City / Rural +1.1%
Since October 2024 · Source: AirDNA 2026 STR Outlook

The Market Is Turning Bullish

Supply is tight, ROI is rebounding, premiums are recovering — and investors are taking notice.

📈 65%

Likely or Very Likely to Buy

Nearly two-thirds of STR investors plan to acquire at least one property in the next 12 months — the strongest buying intent since 2021.

🏘️ 4.3%

Supply Growth at Historic Lows

YOY listing growth has collapsed from a 2022 peak of 22.8% down to just 4.3% — the lowest supply acceleration in the dataset. Less competition entering the market.

⏱️ 1–2 yr

Supply Lags ROI by 1–2 Years

Historically, improving returns drive new supply — but with a 1–2 year lag. Investors entering in 2026 get in before the next supply wave catches up.

FIFA World Cup 2026 Boost

Host cities are set for major short-term revenue windfalls. DSCR loans close in weeks — fast enough to be live before the tournament starts.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup — co-hosted by the U.S., Canada, and Mexico — is expected to drive substantial RevPAR gains in participating cities. Savvy STR investors are already positioning in these markets.

DSCR loans are purpose-built for this opportunity: qualify on rental income, not your W-2, and close fast enough to get properties live before group stage matches begin.

Las Vegas leads all U.S. host cities with a projected +8.1% RevPAR boost during the tournament. Source: STR market projections, 2026 Host City Analysis
  • Las Vegas, NV
    Allegiant Stadium
    +8.1%
  • Philadelphia, PA
    Lincoln Financial Field
    +6.3%
  • Jersey City / Newark, NJ
    MetLife Stadium
    +5.6%
  • Dallas, TX
    AT&T Stadium
    +5.5%
  • Miami, FL
    Hard Rock Stadium
    +4.8%

Ready to Invest in 2026's Best STR Markets?

DSCR loans qualify on your property's rental income — not your W-2. Whether you're targeting a World Cup city or a coastal market with softening prices, we can close in as little as 2–3 weeks.